After Trump, Will Twitter Wither?

By Josh Haner/The New York Times/Redux.

By last summer, Twitter’s stock was looking as forlorn as Donald Trump’s hair stylist. In May, analysts had been warning investors to dump the beleaguered stock, or avoid buying new shares at all. Bank of America had downgraded it from “neutral” to “sell”; JPMorgan had lowered its rating, too; and several others had followed suit. Twitter’s stock chart accurately reflected the company’s narrative. When co-founder Jack Dorsey was named C.E.O. almost a year earlier, in October 2015, the stock was expected to rise dramatically. Instead, absent any meaningful innovations or new products, it fell by half.

But then, in early September, something exciting happened. Twitter’s stock experienced what investors call a “golden cross.” In Wall Street parlance, a golden cross is when a stock’s 50-day moving average crisscrosses above the stock’s 200-day moving average. It’s one of those rare predictors that show what might happen to a stock in the future, and in this instance, it suggested a forthcoming spike. Initially, the analysts were vindicated. The stock rallied a little, and it began to head upwards.

But now, it turns out, this was a false hope for Twitter, which has since plummeted to previously unforeseen depths. After a high of $69 in 2014, the stock is now trading at around $16. The only thing that has prevented Twitter’s stock from falling to single digits over the past few months has been the multifarious rumor of a possible acquisition. At first, Salesforce was going to buy it. Then it was AT&T. Then Disney, or maybe it was Apple? The company was going to sell for $10 billion, and then it wanted $30 billion, but in the end, Twitter never sold, possibly because potential acquirers feared that buying Twitter would be like getting into bed with a feral troll.

The failed sale, however, has been the least of Twitter’s headaches. Since that golden-cross moment there have been layoffs and more criticism lobbed at the company than I’ve seen during my decade covering the ever beleaguered social network. Perhaps most terrifying for investors has been the mass exodus of top talent. There was the departure of Adam Bain, the company’s C.O.O. and the brains behind many of Twitter’s most successful ad products; the company’s C.T.O. left; and so did the vice president of product (a job that has been likened to the jinxed “Defense Against the Dark Arts professorship” from the Harry Potter saga, where every professor ends up dead or ousted at the end of the school year). Sure, people leave companies all the time, but these positions had already seen top-level executives leave as early as just a few months prior. This week, Twitter’s China chief left after just eight months.

VIDEO: Bob Iger and Jack Dorsey on Content in the Digital World at the V.F. New Establishment Summit

A number of reporters, myself included, have castigated Twitter for the company’s facilitation of the ascendance of Donald Trump. Every social network experienced their share of trouble during the election cycle, but Twitter has seemed impervious to its trolling problem in a way that was particularly troublesome. In 2015, Dick Costolo, the former C.E.O., aptly noted, “We suck at dealing with abuse.” Since then, of course, things have only gotten worse.

More recently, however, some investors and Twitter faithful have thought that Trump’s improbable victory might help the company explode with new users—Trump supporters and antagonists, alike. (For some time, Twitter has struggled to grow beyond its 317 million or so monthly active users.) But, realistically, tens of millions of people aren’t going to join Twitter simply to hit refresh on @realDonaldTrump’s feed. More important, even after more than 62 million Americans somehow voted for Trump, he still only has 18 million followers on Twitter, a large percentage of whom are actually bots. A random Kim Kardashian West tweet gets more interaction than a grammatically incorrect 140-character gaucherie from Trump. (Also, I suspect that people are going to soon grow bored of Trump’s puerile tweets. I hope they are. I know I have!)

If anything, Trump has become another headache for Twitter. Some in Silicon Valley have relayed to me that they wouldn’t work at Twitter precisely because of the platform it has afforded the incoming president. Early employees at Twitter have also said to me that they regret being involved in a company that would become a vessel for an army of alt-right trolls. One early Twitter developer recently told me that one of his biggest regrets in his career was not building some sort of design mechanism that could have helped Twitter extinguish its troll problem. If he had, we almost certainly would be living in a different sort of world.

It’s been a miserable year for Twitter, but it seems like the next year will be even worse. Not only does Dorsey have to fill all these executive-level positions, continue to try to entice new users, grow revenue in a post-Bain world, fend off a class-action lawsuit that alleges the board misled investors, hire from the shrinking pool of people who want to work at Twitter, and fix a product that is so broken many see it as beyond repair, but he will also have to continue to justify running both Twitter and Square to the boards of both companies. (Thankfully for Dorsey, Square seems to be doing much better than Twitter, with its stock on the rise for the past several months, though this could also be indicative of the problems Twitter faces.)

Last summer, I flew out to San Francisco to interview Dorsey for a profile in this magazine. Dorsey had been running the company for about a year, and it was clear at the time that his management had not yielded the sort of magical turnaround that many on Wall Street had anticipated. At the time, I was curious whether Twitter, or Dorsey as a co-founder, had a plan B in place in case his tenure did not work out. But as someone on the board told me, “There is no plan B.”

That plan struck me as shortsighted. At the time I joked with Dorsey, “Do you ever look at the Twitter stock chart on your phone and turn it upside down and dream of a day?” He laughed off my entreaty, but these days something more ominous is taking place. It appears that, in terms of Twitter’s stock, the company’s short-term average price could end up crossing below its long-term average—a phenomenon known on Wall Street as a “death cross,” and I don’t need to tell you what that term means on Wall Street.

Indeed, Twitter is caught in a strange place. While other social networks, such as MySpace and Friendster, have gone from being white hot to disappearing into digital dust, Twitter remains relevant. Tweets are mentioned in the most important news stories online every single day (partially thanks to Trump’s love of the platform). If relevance were the barometer of the company’s success, Twitter’s stock would be worth 50 times what it is today. But it’s not. Growth is. Maybe if Dorsey can focus on trying to convince Wall Street that the company isn’t going to grow all that much, but that its influence will, there could be a brighter future for Twitter. I’d personally wait for the stock to fall further before I put money on that bet.

In the meantime, Twitter does have one thing going for it: it’s dirt cheap. And if its stock continues to fall further, there may be some companies still interested in acquiring it. For some investors, the problems inside Twitter and the stagnant valuation signal that the stock could still fall a few more billions dollars. As the analyst Patrick Brik wrote last week, “I am bearish on Twitter stock because the price action is now suggesting a price objective at a new all-time low.” In other words, 2017 isn’t going to be pretty.

JEFF BEZOS

AMAZON, 52

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MARK ZUCKERBERG

FACEBOOK, 32

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EVAN SPIEGEL

SNAPCHAT, 26

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BOB IGER

DISNEY, 65

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YASIR AL RUMAYYAN

SAUDI ARABIAN PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND, 46

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SCOOTER BRAUN

SB PROJECTS, 35

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KARDASHIAN NATION

KARDASHIAN NATION, 19 to 69

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JEFF BEZOS

JEFF BEZOS

AMAZON, 52

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MARK ZUCKERBERG

MARK ZUCKERBERG

FACEBOOK, 32

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EVAN SPIEGEL

EVAN SPIEGEL

SNAPCHAT, 26

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BOB IGER

BOB IGER

DISNEY, 65

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ELON MUSK

ELON MUSK

TESLA, SPACEX, 45

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REED HASTINGS

REED HASTINGS

NETFLIX, 55

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TRAVIS KALANICK

TRAVIS KALANICK

UBER, 40

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RUPERT MURDOCH

RUPERT MURDOCH

NEWS CORP., 21ST CENTURY FOX, 85

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JEAN LIU & CHENG WEI

JEAN LIU & CHENG WEI

DIDI CHUXING, 38, 33

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BEYONCÉ KNOWLES

BEYONCÉ KNOWLES

MUSICIAN, 35

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TIM COOK

TIM COOK

APPLE, 55

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LEBRON JAMES

LEBRON JAMES

ATHLETE, 31

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LARRY PAGE

LARRY PAGE

ALPHABET, 43

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SHERYL SANDBERG

SHERYL SANDBERG

FACEBOOK, 47

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LES MOONVES

LES MOONVES

CBS, 67

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JACK MA

JACK MA

ALIBABA, 52

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JOHN MALONE

JOHN MALONE

LIBERTY MEDIA, 75

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TAYLOR SWIFT

TAYLOR SWIFT

MUSICIAN, 26

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PETER THIEL

PETER THIEL

FOUNDERS FUND, 49

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KEVIN FEIGE

KEVIN FEIGE

MARVEL STUDIOS, 43

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BRIAN CHESKY

BRIAN CHESKY

AIRBNB, 35

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LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA

LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA

HAMILTON, 36

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SUNDAR PICHAI

SUNDAR PICHAI

GOOGLE, 44

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MARC ANDREESSEN

MARC ANDREESSEN

ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ, 45

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STEVE BURKE & BRIAN ROBERTS

STEVE BURKE & BRIAN ROBERTS

NBCUNIVERSAL, COMCAST, 58, 57

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BILL GURLEY

BILL GURLEY

BENCHMARK, 50

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RICHARD PLEPLER

RICHARD PLEPLER

HBO, 57

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JENNIFER LAWRENCE

JENNIFER LAWRENCE

ACTRESS, 26

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MA HUATENG

MA HUATENG

TENCENT, 44

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J. J. ABRAMS

J. J. ABRAMS

DIRECTOR, 50

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TED SARANDOS

TED SARANDOS

NETFLIX, 52

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DAVID BENIOFF & D. B. WEISS

DAVID BENIOFF & D. B. WEISS

GAME OF THRONES, 46, 45

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KEN GRIFFIN

KEN GRIFFIN

CITADEL, 47

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MARC BENIOFF

MARC BENIOFF

SALESFORCE, 51

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AMY SCHUMER

AMY SCHUMER

COMEDIAN, 35

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LOWELL McADAM

LOWELL McADAM

VERIZON, 62

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KATHLEEN KENNEDY

KATHLEEN KENNEDY

LUCASFILM, 63

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RYAN MURPHY

RYAN MURPHY

WRITER, PRODUCER, DIRECTOR, 50

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JAMIE DIMON

JAMIE DIMON

JPMORGAN CHASE, 60

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JOHN OLIVER

JOHN OLIVER

LAST WEEK TONIGHT, 39

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JONAH PERETTI & ZE FRANK

JONAH PERETTI & ZE FRANK

BUZZFEED, 42, 44

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CARL ICAHN

CARL ICAHN

ICAHN ENTERPRISES, 80

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JAN KOUM

JAN KOUM

WHATSAPP, 40

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MARTY BARON

MARTY BARON

THE WASHINGTON POST, 61

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DAVID ZASLAV

DAVID ZASLAV

DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS, 56

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MICHAEL RAPINO

MICHAEL RAPINO

LIVE NATION, 51

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ADELE

ADELE

SINGER, 28

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WANG JIANLIN

WANG JIANLIN

WANDA GROUP, 61

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EGON DURBAN

EGON DURBAN

SILVER LAKE, 43

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BOBBY KOTICK

BOBBY KOTICK

ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, 53

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LACHLAN & JAMES MURDOCH

LACHLAN & JAMES MURDOCH

21ST CENTURY FOX, NEWS CORP., 45, 43

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MARY BARRA

MARY BARRA

GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY, 54

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STEVEN COHEN

STEVEN COHEN

POINT72, 60

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EDDY CUE

EDDY CUE

APPLE, 51

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ADAM MCKAY

ADAM MCKAY

DIRECTOR, WRITER, 48

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JONATHAN GRAY

JONATHAN GRAY

BLACKSTONE GROUP, 46

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CHRIS MELEDANDRI

CHRIS MELEDANDRI

ILLUMINATION ENTERTAINMENT, 57

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SHONDA RHIMES

SHONDA RHIMES

SHONDALAND, 46

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THE GENE–IUSES

THE GENE–IUSES

47, 34, 52

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PRISCILLA CHAN

PRISCILLA CHAN

CHAN ZUCKERBERG INITIATIVE, 31

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SHANE SMITH

SHANE SMITH

VICE, 47

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JEFFREY SMITH

JEFFREY SMITH

STARBOARD VALUE, 44

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MEGYN KELLY

MEGYN KELLY

FOX NEWS, 45

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DAVID BONDERMAN & JIM COULTER

DAVID BONDERMAN & JIM COULTER

TPG, 73, 56

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SATYA NADELLA

SATYA NADELLA

MICROSOFT, 49

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SUSAN WOJCICKI

SUSAN WOJCICKI

YOUTUBE, 48

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CHRIS PRATT

CHRIS PRATT

ACTOR, 37

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DAVID NEVINS

DAVID NEVINS

SHOWTIME NETWORKS, 50

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JACK DORSEY

JACK DORSEY

TWITTER, SQUARE, 39

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PREET BHARARA

PREET BHARARA

U.S. ATTORNEY, SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK, 48

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JASON BLUM

JASON BLUM

BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS, 47

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STEWART BUTTERFIELD

STEWART BUTTERFIELD

SLACK, 43

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LAURENE POWELL JOBS

LAURENE POWELL JOBS

EMERSON COLLECTIVE, 52

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SCARLETT JOHANSSON

SCARLETT JOHANSSON

ACTRESS, 31

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BONNIE HAMMER

BONNIE HAMMER

NBCUNIVERSAL, 66

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KEVIN HART

KEVIN HART

ACTOR, 37

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PALMER LUCKEY

PALMER LUCKEY

OCULUS VR, 24

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JENNY LEE

JENNY LEE

GGV CAPITAL, 44

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NANCY DUBUC

NANCY DUBUC

A&E NETWORKS, 47

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JAMES CORDEN

JAMES CORDEN

THE LATE LATE SHOW, 38

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REID HOFFMAN

REID HOFFMAN

LINKEDIN, GREYLOCK, 49

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KEVIN SYSTROM

KEVIN SYSTROM

INSTAGRAM, 32

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THEO EPSTEIN

THEO EPSTEIN

CHICAGO CUBS, 42

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LOGAN GREEN

LOGAN GREEN

LYFT, 32

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SNAPCHAT STARS

SNAPCHAT STARS

27, 27, 29

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DERAY MCKESSON

DERAY MCKESSON

ACTIVIST, 31

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DANIEL EK

DANIEL EK

SPOTIFY, 33

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LEI JUN

LEI JUN

XIAOMI, 46

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JILL SOLOWAY

JILL SOLOWAY

TRANSPARENT, 51

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MARY PARENT & THOMAS TULL

MARY PARENT & THOMAS TULL

LEGENDARY ENTERTAINMENT, 48, 46

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ALESSANDRO MICHELE

ALESSANDRO MICHELE

GUCCI, 43

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AARON LEVIE

AARON LEVIE

BOX, 30

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ANNE WOJCICKI

ANNE WOJCICKI

23ANDME, 43

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GARY COHN

GARY COHN

GOLDMAN SACHS, 56

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BEN SILBERMANN

BEN SILBERMANN

PINTEREST, 34

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MICHAEL STRAHAN

MICHAEL STRAHAN

GOOD MORNING AMERICA, 44

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DAVID GURLE

DAVID GURLE

SYMPHONY, 49

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YASIR AL RUMAYYAN

YASIR AL RUMAYYAN

SAUDI ARABIAN PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND, 46

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SCOOTER BRAUN

SCOOTER BRAUN

SB PROJECTS, 35

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KARDASHIAN NATION

KARDASHIAN NATION

KARDASHIAN NATION, 19 to 69

Photos, clockwise from left, by Jeff Kravitz, Jon Kopaloff, from FilmMagic; From BroadImage/Rex/Shutterstock; By Samir Hussein/WireImage; By Michael Buckner/WWD/Rex/Shutterstock; By Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Digital Colorization by Sean McCabe.

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